Good points Jon. One other thing that I forgot to mention that works against my prognostication is the weak dollar. Depending on your location, buyers from other countries may help prop prices up as the exchange rate makes buying in the US more appealing. At least 3 of the boats I've looked at, (2 of them Catalina's) were also being looked at by folks from north of the border according to the broker, though all are currently still on the market.
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#2
Main Message Board / Re: boat value revisited
January 06, 2008, 07:45:53 AM
I can't claim any superhuman insight and frankly my last 4 or 5 stock picks are all still in the red, so I can definitely be wrong. ;-) However, by investing in longer term trends, I've managed beat the S&P 500 as well as most mutual funds by a wide margin.
Looking at all the factors, I believe we're at the point in the business cycle where we are due for a slow down and $100 a barrel oil coupled with fallout from the subprime mess in the form of tighter availablity of credit and depressed home prices spells a slow down in luxury items like boats and RV's. Major media have covered the sharp decline in RV sales as an indicator of the nations mood, so I didn't just make this up. Still, as you point out, none of us have a crystal ball. I took a loss on my boat hoping price pressure will work in my favor to find a step up boat, but I could very well have made a mistake.
If you're happy with your boat this is defintely not the time to sell, but if you want to move up, downward price pressure is a two edged sword. It hurts you on the sale, but may help you out buying.
Looking at all the factors, I believe we're at the point in the business cycle where we are due for a slow down and $100 a barrel oil coupled with fallout from the subprime mess in the form of tighter availablity of credit and depressed home prices spells a slow down in luxury items like boats and RV's. Major media have covered the sharp decline in RV sales as an indicator of the nations mood, so I didn't just make this up. Still, as you point out, none of us have a crystal ball. I took a loss on my boat hoping price pressure will work in my favor to find a step up boat, but I could very well have made a mistake.
If you're happy with your boat this is defintely not the time to sell, but if you want to move up, downward price pressure is a two edged sword. It hurts you on the sale, but may help you out buying.
#3
Main Message Board / Re: boat value revisited
January 06, 2008, 04:52:12 AM
The link to the previous thread was interesting, but the economy has changed dramatically from 2 years ago. Thanks in large part to the sub-prime mortgage mess, we are facing a downward turn in our economy that I believe will last 2-3 years or more. Folks selling boats in that time are going to face downard price pressure so those that need/have to sell will likely get less than they would like. Passing on offers while waiting for a higher price will probably just mean more carrying costs until they do take a lower price than they want or decide to keep the boat.
As to BUC values, asking prices for the C34's I've looked at are around 30% above average BUC. Obviously, no one owns an "average" boat -- they are all far above average. Also its clear in the listings that many owners have a hard time separating the difference in "maintenence" dollars spent and "improvements". "Maintenence" is expensive but doesn't really ADD value to your boat -- Rather it keeps the value of your boat from rapidly going to near zero. Even improvements can't be expected to add dollar for dollar value as some asking prices seems to reflect. As a buyer, I have looked at a lot of boats over the past 6-8 months, all priced far above BUC. Few if any were in a condtion I considered truly "above average", most were not interesting enough to pursue getting comp prices on and some were projects priced as "ready to sail". In my opinion the nicest boats we have seen were just average with some nice extras. To me an "above average" 18 YO C34 would have new lifelines, new standing rigging, an upgrade to the problematic Hood LD furler and sails less than 5 years old. A rigger will tell you the standing rigging and lifelines should be replaced after 10 years but, but very few owners follow that guidance, so to me an owner that's taken these steps has kept their boat in "above average" condition.
According to Soldboat info provided to me by a broker, the last couple of 90-93 C34's sold on the east coast brought $52K and prices are down from earlier in the year. The average of 10 C34's in that year range from all over the county was $55K. The delta in asking price and sale price varied from 7 to 13% and there appears to be some regional differences, likely based on availablity and fresh vs. saltwater.
As a buyer, looking at the direction of the economy, I probably couldn't be convinced to offer anything north of $50k for an early 90's 34MKI, unless it was very well maintained, equipped with a fresh suit of sails and had considerable other upgrades/equipment. As a seller, I have an offer pending on my non-Catalina and expect the sale will go through. I took a pasting, but my boat is (hopefully) sold while all the other boats for sale in our marina are still "waiting for that right buyer". I'll probably get lambasted as one of those "low-ball" buyers, but wanted to share my perspective as a potential C34 buyer and while taking my lumps as a seller.
As to BUC values, asking prices for the C34's I've looked at are around 30% above average BUC. Obviously, no one owns an "average" boat -- they are all far above average. Also its clear in the listings that many owners have a hard time separating the difference in "maintenence" dollars spent and "improvements". "Maintenence" is expensive but doesn't really ADD value to your boat -- Rather it keeps the value of your boat from rapidly going to near zero. Even improvements can't be expected to add dollar for dollar value as some asking prices seems to reflect. As a buyer, I have looked at a lot of boats over the past 6-8 months, all priced far above BUC. Few if any were in a condtion I considered truly "above average", most were not interesting enough to pursue getting comp prices on and some were projects priced as "ready to sail". In my opinion the nicest boats we have seen were just average with some nice extras. To me an "above average" 18 YO C34 would have new lifelines, new standing rigging, an upgrade to the problematic Hood LD furler and sails less than 5 years old. A rigger will tell you the standing rigging and lifelines should be replaced after 10 years but, but very few owners follow that guidance, so to me an owner that's taken these steps has kept their boat in "above average" condition.
According to Soldboat info provided to me by a broker, the last couple of 90-93 C34's sold on the east coast brought $52K and prices are down from earlier in the year. The average of 10 C34's in that year range from all over the county was $55K. The delta in asking price and sale price varied from 7 to 13% and there appears to be some regional differences, likely based on availablity and fresh vs. saltwater.
As a buyer, looking at the direction of the economy, I probably couldn't be convinced to offer anything north of $50k for an early 90's 34MKI, unless it was very well maintained, equipped with a fresh suit of sails and had considerable other upgrades/equipment. As a seller, I have an offer pending on my non-Catalina and expect the sale will go through. I took a pasting, but my boat is (hopefully) sold while all the other boats for sale in our marina are still "waiting for that right buyer". I'll probably get lambasted as one of those "low-ball" buyers, but wanted to share my perspective as a potential C34 buyer and while taking my lumps as a seller.
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